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Landslide Care — Prediction Diary

Updated 27 Oct 2026 08:43 IST. Test phase — not an official warning service. Always follow your district administration and IMD.

4events checked
1warned in advance
1near misses
2missed
39 htypical warning time

What our misses taught us

How we score

Every run of our engine is archived. When a landslide or slip is reported, we look up what our map showed for that spot in the last run BEFORE the event. It counts as warned if any land within 1 km was at level 6 or higher (a 1 in 100 chance or more for that square). Level 5 counts as a near miss. Lead time = hours between that run and the reported time (when only a date is reported, we use the start of the day, so the real lead time is longer). Misses are kept and published — they are how the model improves.

Every event

Warned

Thengumarahada (Moyar River flood)

2026-10-26 (Monday) · Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu, India

What happened: Moyar River flood, Monday 26 Oct 2026

Our map before it: 8 1 in 20 – 1 in 10 · about 39 h ahead

What we learn: Our map flagged this area at level 8 about 39 hours before. But Thengumarahada is not on our place-alert list, so no alert reached the people there. Fix: add more Nilgiris villages to the alert list.

News source

Near miss

Nilgiris district-wide (60+ slips); Mettupalayam-Coonoor road; Nilgiri Mountain Railway

2026-10-25/26 (24 h to ~11:00 IST 26 Oct) · Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu, India

What happened: 60+ slips across Nilgiris; Mettupalayam–Coonoor road and Nilgiri Mountain Railway hit

Our map before it: 5 1 in 200 – 1 in 100

What we learn: Reached level 5, one step short of our level-6 warning line. We are checking whether the line should be lower for the Nilgiris.

Checked with rain already fallen only (forecast not saved for this run).

News source

Missed

Burliar (Mettupalayam-Ooty / Coonoor-Mettupalayam NH)

2026-10-23 night · Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu, India

What happened: Slides at 10+ points on the Coonoor–Mettupalayam highway; 1 dead (bus driver), house washed away

Our map before it: 4 1 in 500 – 1 in 200

What we learn: The satellite saw far less rain here than local reports — a short, very heavy burst inside one satellite square. Our saved copy of this run only has the rain already fallen (the forecast part was not kept then), so the check may under-state what the live map showed. Fixes: cloudburst handling, more Tamil Nadu places, and every run now keeps its forecast.

Checked with rain already fallen only (forecast not saved for this run).

News source

Missed

Kodaikanal - Udville Rd / Shenbaganur / Tiger Shola / Silver Cascade

2026-10-23 · Dindigul, Tamil Nadu, India

What happened: Landslips, trees down, flash flood over the bridge near Silver Cascade; vehicles stranded ~2 h

Our map before it: 2 1 in 2,000 – 1 in 1,000

What we learn: Very local heavy rain that the 25 km satellite square averaged away. Same saved-copy limit as Burliar. Fixes: cloudburst handling and Kodaikanal-area places on the alert list.

Checked with rain already fallen only (forecast not saved for this run).

News source